Football is back, we are truly so blessed. My apologies for not writing up anything before last nights games, but alas sometimes work and life (and betting) get in the way. But let’s dive right into it tonight with some angles and will attach some longer form media from earlier in the week as well. (I’m also writing this pretty quick, so apologies in advance for any typos).
I think are some legitimate angles here for each of these passing games to hit on some ceiling along with a game-script where both sides hit.
On the GB side, this is a team which has done a terrific job scheming their way out of pressure looks.
Last season, the Packers faced the least amount of quick pressure, despite not having the most dominant of on-paper offensive lines. And the strength of the Eagles defense, as you can see, lies in their ability to generate a good pass-rush where Vic Fangio should only help in generating simulated pressures as season goes along (peep MIA above).
All of this is to say: The Packers can mitigate the strength of the Eagles rush and the secondary is full of question marks with 2023 4th rd pick Kelee Ringo (elite name) starting at CB, along with rookie 1st round pick Quinyon Mitchell who should see work in the slot. Secondaries are voodoo anyway— and if Jordan Love is as good as his late 2023 ceiling suggests it won’t matter much anyway. If Love is having success through the air, that likely results in a game script where the Packers are winning whereas the market is pricing the opposite correlation. I’ll be playing some Love alts + GB alts.
I don’t have interest in guessing who will see the field/targets on GB side or who has the best matchup, so I’ll be laying off most player specific SGP angles, but it is always worth considering considering how dispersed the targets are on GB can get creative in building SGPs with some alt U’s alongside Jordan Love alt O’s (another way of playing Love+this angle without the side here).
On the PHI side…
as Ben Linsey discussed in our new podcast, new Packers DC Jeff Haffley defensive philosophy relies a whole bunch of utilizing man coverage. As we’ve discussed many times in this space, in man coverage, more so than zone, better talent wins out—where the good WRs beat the CBs and vice versa. Jaire Alexander is certainly a big name CB, but much of that has been his play on the ball, where he’s been absolutely elite. But in preventing separation—what matters most here considering the man. coverage angle— he’s only been in the 60th percentile over the last 5 years. Regardless, there might not be a CB duo in the league who would be in a favorable spot against Brown and Smith while in man coverage. Also just worth noting: QBs do scramble for more yards vs man defenses than zone, but will leave that there.
Books are pricing Hurts passing yards/alts according to his medians from last season, but that fails to capture the relevant picture for 2024. For starters, Hurts played through multiple injuries last year, likely influencing his performance. But, perhaps more important for an alt passing yards angle is that PHI brought in a new OC in Kellen Moore who will surely look to throw more, (and likely more efficiently), than previous OC Brian Johnson. If the Eagles go from 13th in pass rate to the top 5 rte we’re accustomed from Kellen Moore offenses Hurt’s alt props are mispriced in this matchup on volume projection alone. More dropbacks in a beatable spot is what the SGP dreams are made of.
Early Week Media:
PFF Betting Podcast
I am super stoked to be joining ball knower Ben Linsey every WED for a podcast where we will take a deep dive into a few games a week and talk ball and bets.
Forward Progress Week 1 Best Bets
Lions Alts:
A case for the Lions and their alt lines this week
As always, appreciate the support and I’ll be back on Sunday AM with the full week 1 Betting Gameplan.